Toto Wolff thinks Mercedes’ victory chance in Hungary is "one per cent".
That is despite the fact the reigning champions have appeared generally stronger than Ferrari in recent races.
Some believe the recent Mercedes boost has been at least in part due to a Ferrari slump, connected to rumours the Italian team has had to change several aspects of its cars over legality concerns.
First, the FIA put a stop to the oil-in-fuel trick, then an aerodynamic tweak involving the wheels was banned, and finally Ferrari was asked to stop its floor from flexing.
However, Sebastian Vettel then led a Ferrari one-two in Hungary qualifying.
"There was a lot of talk after Silverstone and it’s good we’ve given the answer on the track," said the German.
But Mercedes chief Wolff thinks Mercedes will be back with a bang after the summer break.
"I think it’s circuit specific," he said, likening Hungary to Monaco, where Ferrari also dominated.
"I think it will be similar in Singapore as well," Wolff added. "The DNA of our car is very good on the fast tracks, but Ferrari is simply better with its shorter wheelbase on tracks like this one."