Two top Honda officials are hoping Yuki Tsunoda is chosen to replace Red Bull’s endangered Sergio Perez for 2025.
Most insiders and analysts agree that Red Bull bosses Christian Horner and Dr Helmut Marko have decided to oust Perez.
Currently underway, according to multiple reports, are complicated and expensive negotiations to terminate or modify 34-year-old Perez’s 2025 contract.
2016 world champion Nico Rosberg said in Abu Dhabi that he has heard the Mexican driver’s management team is demanding a $16m termination fee.
But former F1 engineer Kees van de Grint thinks it could actually cost Red Bull a lot more than that. "I think the buyout sum is 75 million euros. They have to buy out two years of his contract."
Should Red Bull find a solution, the hot favourite to replace him is Liam Lawson. In theory, the much more experienced Tsunoda, 24, would be a more logical choice, but Red Bull is believed to have concerns about his character.
Another hurdle is Tsunoda’s close ties with Red Bull engine partner Honda, who are switching to Aston Martin for 2026 and beyond.
Nonetheless, following some pressure from the Japanese manufacturer, Tsunoda was granted a test in the 2024 Red Bull Racing car this week. Marko confirmed that Red Bull "will wait for the results" before announcing the composition of the Red Bull and Racing Bulls lineups for 2025.
"We were able to realise his request to participate in the test," Honda Racing Corporation (HRC) president Koji Watanabe confirmed. "I have heard that he was very satisfied."
Watanabe revealed that he spoke with team boss Christian Horner about the matter in Abu Dhabi.
"On Saturday I had various discussions with Christian Horner about the drivers for next season and beyond," he said. "As I always say, the team has the right to decide on the driver, so our opinion is merely for reference. But from the HRC side, we believe that Tsunoda has the ability to be promoted to Red Bull and should be one of the candidates.
"All we could do is provide an opportunity for him to show his abilities to the world, which is why I asked that he participate in this test, and we were able to make it happen.
"I only saw him (Tsunoda) before the test, and he said he wanted a good result and to enjoy himself. Since then, all I have is a report from HRC on-site, where he very clearly analysed the differences between the RB car and the Red Bull car, and gave the team very useful advice and comments on that basis.
"After that, I don’t know what will happen, so we’ll have to wait and see, but if it goes well, that will be great. In any case, he’s already due to drive for RB next season, so I expect him to perform well next season no matter which team he drives for."
Also hoping Tsunoda is selected to replace Perez is former F1 driver Takuma Sato, who is now an executive advisor for Honda Racing Corporation.
"It’s up to the team of course," said the Japanese. "But Yuki said that his driving style suits the Red Bull car, with its sharp front end, so I think he had a very good test.
"Now, all we can do is pray."